The opening of the Renaissance dam: water safety and regional balance – the face of truth – ✍️ Ibrahim Shaqlawi
I allowed myself to see the original version of the official agreement between Sudan and Ethiopia concerning the exchange of information related to the fullness and the functioning of the Renaissance dam. On the basis of this document, we review in this article the possibilities of improving the safety of Sudanese water and possible regional balances, in the light of Sudanese-Egyptian strategic relations, and of the Sudanese growing-ethiopian rapproche.
The opening of the Renaissance dam on Tuesday, December 9, 2025 was a resort responsible for reshaping water and the political equation in the Nile basin. After more than a decade of controversy, negotiations and climbing, the dam concluded a complete operation, carrying with it a complex mixture of opportunities and concerns, in particular for Sudan directly adjacent to the dam, and Egypt which depends on the project a symbol of sovery and aspiration of development.
Sudan, as the most technical and operational country of the Renaissance dam, has made a different strategic choice from Egypt, when it chose to sign a bilateral agreement with Ethiopia in October 2022 to regulate the exchange of technical and operational information linked to the dam.
The agreement, which was only officially disclosed after the Sudanese Minister of Irrigation and the Nile Water Technical Water Staff in recently, includes clear obligations on the Ethiopian side to drain specific quantities of water (no less than 300 cubic meters per second), and obtaining the diploma in the filling process during the rainy season, while reducing cases of dehydration.
However, the most important thing is that the agreement regulates the exchange of daily information between the two parties, including water levels, flows, versions and water quality, and establishes a common technical mechanism for coordination and decision -making with opinion consensus. Technically, this Agreement is a necessary framework to ensure the safety of damage neighboring Sudan, such as Al -Rusiris, and also helps reduce the risks associated with floods or sudden water shortages, and increases Sudan opportunities to improve agriculture, produce electricity and develop internal resources.
As for the political level, this agreement has raised questions on the question of whether Sudan has abdicated its historical solidarity with Egypt, or if it has taken a calculated measure to protect its direct national interests.
In fact, the sensitive geographic location of Sudan and its previous experiences with the unilateral filling of the dam were imposed on it the need to move to a bilateral technical understanding. Daily coordination with Ethiopia is not a diplomatic tactic, but rather an operational need for engineering to ensure the security of more than 20 million Sudanese on the banks of the Blue Nile.
On the other hand, Egypt sees in any bilateral understanding with Ethiopia without a complete agreement as a threat to historical arrangements for water sharing and an affirmation of the unilateral approach of Ethiopia. Consequently, she recently submitted an official letter to the Security Council confirming her desire to take “all necessary measures” to defend her water rights. And between the two positions, the real challenge remains the construction of a common regional framework which restores the loss of confidence and establishes joint cooperation rules which do not exclude any part.
The experience of Sudan with the fourth filling of the Renaissance dam during the year 2023, which coincided with a relative drought despite the abundance of rain in certain states, was well managed despite the fragility of the water situation, because the exchange of information and technical coordination helped to control.
Hydrological data, according to publications of the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation in Sudan earlier, indicate that the level of flow of blue Nile during the flood season the same year was the lowest decades, even compared to 1948, which is a historic reference for drought. This crisis brought the Nile water stations out, the withdrawal of culture and the low production of electricity.
In this context, the agreement with Ethiopia, although not complete, becomes a defensive and a first interest to protect the safety of Sudanese water. It is also a test of the ability of Sudan to negotiate and develop this framework to include the subsequent joint administration of the dam and ensure complete coordination during emergency situations, as obstetrics, water quality change, sudden floods or prolonged drought.
On the other hand, the repeated declarations of Addis Ababa according to which the Renaissance dam is a “regional project” can open the door to a broader understanding with Egypt, in particular if the construction on the technical and environmental foundations contained in the Sudanese -Ethiopian agreement, which includes specific obligations to update security measures, exchange daily data and create a common technical mechanism capable of solving technical differences possible.
In the end, the Renaissance dam can only be considered as an engineering generator, but rather as a tool to redefine relations between the countries of the Nile basin. Like the geographic location of Sudan imposes an exceptional sensitivity to the dam, historical and legal considerations are imposed on Egypt a more conservative attitude. But what collects the three countries is more than what separates them, what is mutual dependence to the waters of a river.
The option to which everyone is confronted is not between shock or renunciation, but between stagnation or progression towards real cooperation which transforms the dam from a point of disagreement to a partnership platform. The bilateral agreement between Sudan and Ethiopia, despite its limits, can be the kernel of a broader solution if it is treated from a strategic point of view, and not as a tactical affair.
From the point of view of the face of truth in a world where environmental and geopolitical challenges degenerate, the Renaissance dam is highlighted as a symbol of the intersection of interests and aspirations between countries. Success in the management of this enormous project is not only in its engineering construction, but in the capacity of the parties to build bridges of trust and understanding, and to adopt a spirit of cooperation which exceeds borders and close policies. Water safety and regional balance in the Nile basin will remain dependent on the wisdom of its leaders and their audacity in conversion of crises into opportunities, to achieve the peoples of the region, peace and development that were waiting.
You are fine and well.
Wednesday September 10, 2025 ad shglawi55@gmail.com
