The Renaissance dam .. in the first trusted tests between Sudan and Ethiopia – the face of truth – ✍️ Ibrahim Shaqlawi
In the first practical test of the Technical Information Exchange Agreement between Sudan and Ethiopia signed in October 2022, the Sudanese Irrigation Ministry launched Thursday, September 25, 2025 AD, through the early alert alert unit, a high risk warning of possible floods during the Nile, due to the sudden increase in the blue levels of the Nile.
The warning included several Sudanese states, including Khartoum, Sennar, Al -jazeera and the White Nile, which brought back to the front with the extent of the commitment of the Ethiopian part towards the principle of transparency and previous coordination in the management of Renaissance dams.
Technically, the discharges of the Renaissance dam, according to “the declarations of the Sudanese water resources expert, Dr. Othman Al -Tom Hamad, exceeded 750 million cubic meters per day, compared to an import of water not exceeding 450 million cubic meters per day.
It is likely that these fast clouds are linked to an attempt to reduce the storage level, especially in the last two meters of stagnation, which might not have been wet before.
But this interpretation, despite its technique and engineering, does not eliminate legitimate concerns concerning the lack of real coordination with Sudan, because major drainage operations took place without early notification or real coordination, which is undermined the foundations concerned by security and employment security, and the last combinations were the first week of November. Rawy every three months.
Nevertheless, Ethiopia seems to practice what can be described as a “notification policy without consultation”, which puts Sudan before a reality policy which loses the ability to take proactive measures to protect its vital facilities and distributors along the Blue Nile and the main Nile.
On the other hand, this evolution reflects the fragility of confidence between the two parties, despite the existence of a written agreement which is supposed to be regulated by the reports, the consultation and the exchange of daily data related to the operation and the filling. This incident raises explicit questions on: The effectiveness of the daily information exchange mechanism. In addition to the severity of the Ethiopian part in the implementation of its technical obligations, far from political maneuvers.
Sudan’s ability to monitor and analyze mutual data independently in light of limited surveillance tools after being affected by war and the absence of a regional control center.
It is clear that the opening of the Renaissance dam on September 9, 2025, inserted the region into a new water equation, going beyond the most complex political and security dimensions. Ethiopia, through the dam, controls more than 80% of the blue Nile water, which gives it a great influence on water on Sudan and Egypt, and places the two countries in front of an unprecedented reality of water in terms of dependence and influence.
While Egypt has chosen the level of climbing internationally, Sudan has turned to the direct commitment policy thanks to the information exchange agreement, driven by the operational and security necessities linked to its geographic proximity to the dam, in particular the dam assigned by the Razares dam in more than 20 million people on the banks.
Although this option is theoretically correct, recent experience has shown that “information exchange” cannot be considered as a real gain unless it is associated with restrictive framework guarantees and to accelerate the training of joint control mechanisms and their meetings.
Faced with this reality, the urgent need to reassess the executive framework of the information exchange agreement appears, in particular in the light of the recent incident. Experts suggest that Sudan includes updated surveillance mechanisms in the agreement, in particular: a joint control room and operation on the banks and the Renaissance dam. In addition to the compulsory time of pre-risk before any major change. In addition to a direct participation of Sudanese experts in monitoring and measuring the dams of the dam.
Certain experts also indicate the importance of exploiting the reality of the dam as a strategic switch, by developing joint projects in the fields of energy, agriculture and industry, which can transform the dam from a point of tension into a real development crane. However, this is only achieved by the existence of a productive technical and political partnership based on transparency, coordination and strategic interests, and not spelling and unilateralism.
In the end, the recent incident of floods cannot be read in isolation of the most complete political context of the Sudanese-Ethiopian relations, because the bilateral agreement on the Renaissance dam remains an important step, but it is not sufficient alone to ensure the safety of Sudan water, unless it is reinforced with a real will to transparent technical cooperation and an effective mechanism for surveillance Joint interview for transparent technical intervention. It is a moment of early tests, not only for the agreement, but also for the global approach that Sudan has chosen in the treatment of one of the most sensitive problems of the horn of Africa.
The agreement to exchange information between Sudan and Ethiopia according to the #face of Truth is a necessary step but asleep, unless it is supported by a serious political will between strategic and political interests, and the operational transparency which guarantees the safety of Sudan water.
The recent flooding incident, as an early test of the efficiency of the agreement, and an alarm sound that calls for the reset of the compass of the technical relationship and the resumption of meetings between the two countries before the Renaissance dam went from a development project to a permanent point of tension.
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Saturday September 27, 2025 ad shglawi55@gmail.com
