The Importance of Early Warning Services and Public Opinion Measurement Devices in Sudan ✍️ Professor: Fikri Kabbashi, Al-Amin Al-Arabi
The acceleration of recent events in Sudan in recent years, whether at the military level during the coup against the transitional government or the escalation of events at the civilian level, including the development of events in eastern Sudan, indicates that we in Sudan are still lacking means of warning and forecasting crises, as well as mechanisms for measuring public opinion. Given its importance, I understood that I would like to devote this space to addressing this issue, especially since at a time when societies, states and the entire human community seek to prevent the emergence of violent conflicts that disrupt and disrupt it, and this preventive prevention must be linked to the construction of an early warning system, intended to warn in advance of the dangers of violent conflicts. The importance of this topic is evident in its contribution to forecasting and early warning regarding the possibility of the emergence or re-emergence of conflicts. The early warning process means alerting quickly to these risks and then working to mobilize all political, military, social, media, cultural and other resources and capabilities to prevent their occurrence.
The importance of measuring public opinion also lies in the fact that it represents the most modern direct communication channel between governments and peoples, and it is also considered one of the important channels to anticipate collective visions regarding national issues, collective positions or emerging trends. issues, especially if they are surveys conducted by professional, independent and professional centers, and in the current era, various governments attach great importance to measuring public opinion, whether through their ability to anticipate public opinion that allows them to make a decision to meet the needs of their society, face emerging problems or correct their vision of the issues targeted by this measurement. This can be clarified through the following:
First: Early Warning Services: Early warning indicators play a major role in helping government and private organizations manage crises around them. It has therefore become necessary for the higher departments of these organizations to monitor and control these indicators themselves and take appropriate decisions. regarding them, but the large number of these indicators. The preoccupation of the departments with development and organizational tasks forces them to appoint other people to monitor on their behalf, which may cause crises due to poor judgment or poor monitoring by the people assigned to these indicators. monitor these indicators, and since one of the basic tasks of the higher departments is to protect the organization from these crises, it is a matter of finding practical solutions that make these departments capable of monitoring and controlling the early warning indicators and at the same time to carry out their other development tasks. Early warning systems constitute a service and protection for the human community, if there is a sincere will on the part of the leaders and those responsible for managing the affairs of societies and countries. Scientists, researchers and experts agree that we are living today in an era of crises and disasters, as the last decades have witnessed the emergence of a large number of them at the global, national, local, regional and sectoral levels, as well as at the level of economic units, despite the enormous scientific and technological progress in studies predicting these crises and disasters and ways to deal with their negative social, environmental effects and, consequently, on economic growth and competitive capacities, which affect the well-being of people in general.
Second: Public Opinion Measuring Devices: Interest in measuring public opinion (Public Opinion) began in the early 19th century, in 1824 AD, when some newspapers and commercial institutions, especially in the United States of America, began to conduct interviews and public opinion surveys. However, the United States of America began to conduct mass opinion surveys since 1930 AD, in a scientific and organized manner, using voter lists on which public opinion was surveyed. This method gained great fame after confirming its ability to predict public opinion. presidential election results conducted by the George Gallup Institute to measure public opinion in 2017. 1936 AD, established in 1935 AD, then the Public Opinion Research Bureau at Princeton University in 1940 AD by Professor Hadley Cantrell, then followed the establishment of public opinion research centers at American universities, including the University of Chicago and the University of Washington, and subsequently many associations were created, such as the American Society for Public Opinion Research and the Conference The International Committee for Public Opinion Research, which has more than 120 member countries, then established several research centers to study public opinion in Europe. The dynamism of public opinion and its constant evolution require that policy makers, whether at the political, economic or social level, or at the national, central or local level, accurately measure public opinion on various issues and continuously, in order to know the real reality in its magnitude. There is no doubt that an accurate measurement of public opinion trends among the general public or among selected groups of the general public will provide an opportunity for various governments and state agencies to do their part. It also enables the state and its various organizations to steer public opinion in a healthy direction, and to mobilize and concentrate its forces to steer it in a direction that promotes political, economic and social development plans, which is in line with modern trends in influencing public opinion.
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