A new reading of the Sudanese scene in the light of military and political developments – The face of truth – ✍️ Ibrahim Shaqlawi
As the Sudanese army continues to advance rapidly against the rapid support militia on a number of axes, Sudan faces a decisive moment that could determine its political and security future. The situation is complicated by military escalation, which appears to have become the only option for the army at present, despite continued regional and international pressure to find a political solution. While state leaders continued to emphasize that there would be no negotiations before the elimination of the rebellion, this indicates that the next step will determine the characteristics of the country's future. We are therefore obliged to reread the military and political scene.
Earlier this week, in a remarkable statement to the Sudanese people, Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, Chairman of the Sovereignty Council, said: “We are victorious despite everyone's will, and God is with us and He will grant us victory.” This statement reflects the insistence on the elimination of the rapid support militia, which is a continuation of the intensive military operations that the army began on September 26, during which it was able to regain many strategic sites in Khartoum, Sennar and Al-Obeid The army's progress on the ground reinforces the hypothesis that a military solution is the most likely option despite its high cost.
According to military sources, many complications have been resolved in certain axes that hindered the army's progress beyond expectations, which portends potential significant progress in these axes in the coming days. There was also talk of the arrival of quality supplies in terms of personnel and equipment, which would strengthen the army's ability to continue its progress and expand the scope of military operations.
Yesterday, in the Sennar axis, Lieutenant General Shams al-Din Kabbashi, deputy commander-in-chief of the army, also confirmed that the door to negotiations with the militias was completely closed, stressing that the army would not stop no military operations until the Rapid Support Militia has been completely eliminated. These statements place the military resolution process as an irreversible priority, as military leaders believe that any attempt at negotiation before a resolution may mean strengthening the position of the militias and reorganizing their ranks.
Despite continued calls from some political parties to seek a political solution, the Sudanese government believes that any political settlement at present could mean the revival of the Rapid Support Militia, which would disrupt the country's stability and contradict the desire of citizens to turn this situation into a page forever. The military solution therefore becomes the only way to restore security before considering a possible political process.
On the other hand, the Coordination of Civil Forces is trying to “progress” to adapt to the new reality. Dr Abdullah Hamdok, head of the Coordination governing body in Entebbe, announced the introduction of new mechanisms to emerge from the crisis. , such as the “Round Table” and the “Broad Front”, to try to broaden the circle of political dialogue. Although the “Taqaddam” coordination has already provided great support to the Rapid Support Militia by signing the Declaration of Principles with it in Addis Ababa last February, the militia has not respected any of its provisions, as hoped. “Taqaddam” coordination. return to power if the militias were able to control the country.
Therefore, the army's continued military victories place it in a difficult position that forces it to reconsider its positions in favor of the militias. Furthermore, according to reliable sources, “Taqaddam” is facing violent pressure from decision-making circles within the American administration due to its coordination relations with the Rapid Support Militia. According to the sources, this pressure is part of the change in American position against Rapid Support, which resulted in the approval of a draft resolution in the House of Representatives of Congress qualifying as genocide the crimes committed by the militias in Darfur. These transformations present coordination with new challenges in adapting to political changes, which may pose an obstacle to any potential political settlement.
At the regional level, Egypt stands out as one of the main actors in the Sudanese crisis, as it seeks to ensure the stability of Sudan because it constitutes strategic depth for it. Visit of Egyptian Foreign Minister Dr. Badr Abdel-Aty to Sudan the day before yesterday, and his submission of a letter from Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi to Sudanese President Abdel-Fattah El-Burhan, reflects continued support from Egypt to the positions of the Sudanese government in its quest for a military solution. Egypt, aware that Sudan's stability is part of the region's stability, has played a central role in supporting the direction of Sudan's leaders. At the same time, the question remains to what extent this support affects international positions regarding the Sudanese crisis.
On the other hand, humanitarian challenges are increasing significantly. Sudanese cities have witnessed systematic destruction of infrastructure, the most recent of which is the Sennar sugar factory, in addition to massive displacement of civilians, in addition to threats to the success of the winter agricultural season, which raise questions about the policy of the Sudanese government. capacity to meet these challenges and then move on to the aftermath of war.
Therefore, according to what seems to be the truth, the political process in Sudan is very complex, because it is not possible to advance the political dialogue before the military conflict is resolved. Furthermore, observers say, any attempt at negotiations before the battle is resolved could mean giving militias the opportunity to reorganize their ranks, complicating any future political process. However, questions remain on how to manage the transition phase once the battle is resolved, pending answers, especially in light of internal transformations during which the national movement strongly supports the army. These developments taken together will clearly impact the future of Sudan. .
May you always be well.
Thursday December 5, 2024 AD (email protected)
