Al -fasher: Stalingrad Soudan?! – The face of the truth – ✍️ Ibrahim Shaqlawi
Military history is full of battles that have formed a turning point in wars, where not only are the results of the military confrontation determined, but also the path to the political future and jihadist of the countries. Some people can be surprised by the reasons why we went to this comparison between the battle of El-Fasher and the Battle of Stalingrad (1942-1943) during the Second World War, this battle was a turning point between war between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union, where the victory of the Soviets at Stalingrad was the start of the collapse of the Nazis to the east. Consequently, this makes it the similarity of the battle of al-Fasher by being a fateful battle which should change the course of war in Sudan, in the midst of the variation of international positions between a supporter and a curator. To dismantle this scene with all its potential scenarios to reach a clear vision that makes us stand on the real Sudanese scene.
With the climbing of events in Sudan, the city of El Fasher, the capital of the state of Darfur du Nord, stands out as a conflict point between the Sudanese army and the rapid support militia. The blockade imposed on the city for months, which was led by the United Nations Security Council in June 2024, reflects the dynamics of the evolution of the war, while Al-Fasher has become a test scene regional and international powers to the Sudanese crisis. In this context, the resolution of the United Nations Security Council, which called at the end of the El-Fasher headquarters in June 2024, came with the support of 14 members, with the non-vote of Russia, which indicates the intersection of interests and the variation of geopolitical accounts between the main countries concerning Sudan.
REGIONALIALE, the Carte of Alliances on Sudan witnesses notable transformations. Last week, Cairo Witnessed Simultaneous Visits to Kenyan President William Roto and Libyan General Khalifa Haftar, While Kenya Represents Part of the Regional Mediation through “IGAD”, Her Hardline Position Towards Rapid Support Indicates A Desire to Curb the Militia, in Light of Fears of Expansion its influence is regional. Haftar, who has logistical relations with the rapid support militia, could be his visit to Egypt as an indication of the reassessment of support for this militia, in particular with the escalation of international pressure against it. In addition, the multiple conviction of countries of cooperation in the Gulf, the Arab League and the United Nations Secretary General to bomb the Saudi Hospital of Al-Fasher by the rapid support militia reflects a diplomatic movement which can be linked to the Restoration of regional powers to the Sudanese crisis.
On the other hand, Chad plays a central role in the scene, because it provides a strategic depth of the militia, whether through the border or by logistical support, while Abhabi continues to support the militia by Military supply and financing, according to the American Wall Street Journal, which reflects a complex regional overlap in the crisis.
Consequently, Al-Fasher now represents a model of will of the will in Sudan. On the one hand, it is the only city in Darfur that did not fall into rapid support, which makes it a symbol of firmness in the face of the militia's complete control project in the region. On the other hand, the battle of al-Fasher is considered to be a practical test of the theory of the division of Sudan, where certain observers see that the continuation of the war around the al-Fasher can be part of the scenario de Re-Dessin the map of the country, by imposing a fait accompli which leads to the separation of Darfur as an independent state under the control of the militia, while guaranteeing the interests of certain regional countries such as Egypt, which can Obtain security arrangements on their southern borders as part of this scenario.
This possibility is supported by certain indirect diplomatic movements and declarations. In the event that this scenario is reached, the regional influence will be extremely dangerous, could lead to the destabilization of the whole region, especially since the Darfur has a composition of a complex population which testifies to the historical conflicts between the Arab components and not Arab. Any separation will be a direct threat to Sudan United and will push towards radical transformations on political scales. The danger is also that it will not be a state for its people, but for the Arabs of the diaspora who are looking for a homeland, because it will be a regional threat to all the African countries in the north of the Sahara as its forces on demand 'did not compromise the life of stability. In addition, the armed movements of the Darfur which express the region will not be satisfied with this existential threat.
At the political level, the conflict within the coordination of civil forces (progress) clearly reflects the size of the divisions with regard to the treatment of the crisis. While its leadership adheres to the absence of a parallel government, other leaders consider that the presence of a political entity in Darfur is necessary to fill the administrative vacuum in the region, in particular in the event of a fall of El -Fasher. This contrast reveals a deeper division in the political position towards the treatment of the crisis, because some fear that any direction of an alternative government will legalize the reality of the division. On the other hand, the national block of the parties supporting the army, led by the Islamists, sees that talking about the fall of El-Fasher or the secession of Darfur is an international conspiracy against Sudan and that the people of Sudan adheres to the unity of their country and their choice to defeat the country's last thumb supported militia.
At the military level, the Sudanese army realizes that the dismantling of the Easher seat is a strategic priority, not only to protect residents of the city, but also to abandon the rebellion project in Darfur. Where Al-Fasher is a decisive turning point in the current war. The city, which has resisted the rapid support militia for more than eight months, had to face more than 180 assault attempts, has become a symbol of national resilience. With the climbing of calls to break the seat, attention is directed to the Sudanese army, joint forces and popular resistance, which is preparing to launch large -scale military operations to restore full control of Darfur.
Consequently, according to what we see of truth, the Sudanese crisis has entered the scene of regional and international re-positioning, while certain forces seek to reorganize the scene in a way that serves its interests, while the army Sudanese works to extend control and restore security. In the light of this intertwined scene, the most important question remains: will Al-Fasher remain closed until it is a cemetery for rebellion, or will it turn into a starting point for What does the project divide Sudan?
You are fine and well.
Saturday, February 1, 2025 after JC. (Protected by e-mail)
