Chances of success of the Turkish mediation initiative between Sudan and the Emirates – The face of truth – ✍️ Ibrahim Shaqlawi
In this article we try to analyze the opportunities available for the success of the Turkish initiative announced yesterday by the Sudanese Sovereignty Council, in which it was stated that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed in a telephone call with Council President Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan is ready to mediate between Sudan and the United Arab Emirates to bring security and peace to the country. He added that Al-Burhan “welcomed any Turkish role contributing to ending the war provoked by the rebel Rapid Support militia, and affirmed its confidence in the positions of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his government in favor of the Sudanese people and their choices. .”
We are therefore faced with an important step forward which must be considered in the context of the ongoing security and political arrangements in the Arab region. In addition to the implicit recognition of the Emirati intervention in the war in Sudan, which puts an end to the denial, it is also known that Turkey pursues a balanced foreign policy and that its success in mediating between the conflicting parties in different regions of the world has allows us to play a mediation role. a decisive role in the end of the war. Given its regional and international weight, it gives it several chances for the success of its initiative, which we detail as follows:
Turkey, under the leadership of President Erdogan, has gained significant support in the Arab and Islamic world. The Sudanese people admire Turkey's experience in political, economic and social stability. This trust can be an essential basis for speeding up the mediation process between the parties. The Sudanese army, led by Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, finds in Turkey a strong partner on which it can count in trying to restore security and stability in the country.
Turkey also enjoys great support from many regional military parties, given its growing military power. It also maintains close relations with countries in the region, including major countries in the Arab world such as Egypt, Qatar and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. All these countries understand what is happening in Sudan, and this could enable any initiative in this regard to find acceptance and support from these countries. Paving the way for its success, Turkey is also able to play a positive role in convincing major regional powers, such as the United States, which have close relations with the UAE, to support efforts to end to the war in Sudan.
Furthermore, Turkey has been able to demonstrate its ability to influence complex issues such as the Syrian crisis and the Ethiopian-Somali conflict, which strengthens its ability to play a decisive role in Sudan. Through its regional influence, Turkey can help ensure this. Sudan is not becoming an arena for regional conflicts. This successful diplomatic experience can provide a platform for dialogue between different parties, from the government to the army to rebel militias. Turkey also has the capacity to bring political parties together and direct them towards further negotiations if it decides to carry out this step until the end of the political process in Sudan. Observers believe that presenting President Erdogan as an honest mediator could be a good thing. be an opportunity to end the war.
This neutrality helps to establish trust among everyone. It is also important to know that the ongoing war urgently needs economic support and reconstruction of its infrastructure. Turkey can play a major role in this area, as Ankara has offered its continued support for humanitarian aid and reconstruction, and it also has extensive experience in infrastructure projects that can help improve the economic situation in Sudan. In the aftermath of the war, we should also not forget that Sudan benefits from an excellent geostrategic location on the Red Sea coast which extends for approximately 800 kilometers, making it a focal point for many powers. regional and international.
Turkey's relations with Red Sea countries such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia also allow it to provide guarantees of security and stability in this region. Therefore, this increases Turkey's opportunities and brings it closer to a major breakthrough at this stage, given that Sudanese leaders have shown openness to Turkish mediation. It should also be noted that Turkey is fully aware of the sensitivity of the issue of national sovereignty in Sudan, which places it in an appropriate position to provide guarantees aimed at preserving the unity and territorial integrity of Sudan. Despite the great opportunities Turkey enjoys, it could face challenges in its role as mediator in Sudan, the most important of which are: Regional competition: the United Arab Emirates: for example, it could be reluctant to any Turkish mediation . threaten its interests in Sudan if it does not find sufficient guarantees, which is difficult for Sudan to present before the start of this possible dialogue, given the internal complexities.
Many Sudanese parties may not be ready to concede or reach a comprehensive settlement. While the general mobilization of the Sudanese people is moving towards a resolution of the war with gunfire, and it is the violations committed by the Rapid Support Militia and its unbearable local supporters which have imposed this complex reality, also at the level internationally, the presence of major countries such as the United States and China could complicate the Turkish mediation process, requiring careful international coordination to ensure that Turkey's interests do not conflict with those of these powers. In this, we can benefit from the Syrian experience, in which Turkey was a major player.
So, according to what we see in reality, Turkey's opportunities to defuse the war in Sudan remain great, given its growing role in regional politics, its good relations with the Sudanese leadership, its acceptance by the Sudanese people and their experience. in international mediation. If Turkey exploits these opportunities strategically, it could play a major role in restoring security and establishing peace and stability in Sudan. We continue.
May you always be well.
Saturday December 14, 2024 AD. (email protected)
