Domino transmission of Sudan and regional – The face of truth – ✍️ Ibrahim Shaqlawi
In the light of military climbing between Iran and Israel, the “Game Domino”, which represents a series of successive events, is obvious in the Middle East, which represents a series of successive events, each affecting the other. Although the confrontation between Tehran and Tel Aviv is still limited in terms of geographic scope, its repercussions go beyond the borders, so that the countries of the whole region, in particular those in contact with influence or which are a transit zone.
In this context, this article tries to explore how military accounts interfere with the strategic interests of Sudan, in the light of these developments, and the new stage of instability in the region, as well as reading the potential movements of Sudan to fold the war file.
Despite the current limited nature of the Iranian-Israeli confrontation, its rebounds are a candidate to reach most countries in the region, in particular Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and perhaps even the Emirates. This scene threatens to reshape the map of alliances and imposes new security arrangements in traditional spheres of influence.
As for Sudan, it is not immune to these developments. The repercussions of this conflict may appear at three main levels: first: economically, this will likely lead to disorder on the oil markets and tensions in the navigation lines in the Red Sea, to deepen the pressure on the Sudanese economy which is originally exhausted by war. It may be necessary to seriously think of finding other naval outlets, based on previous experiences, as happened in 2021 when the Sudanese government used the ports of Ain Sukhna and Alexandria in Egypt, following the accumulation of containers in the port of Sudan port.
Second: politically, the internal political situation can be affected by the concern of certain regional allies of the rapid support militia for the major confrontation, which can weaken the level of political and logistical support provided to it, and pushes the local forces allied to review their accounts and positions in favor of the idea of political and catering stability.
Third: security, fears of the Red Sea transforming into a battlefield, in the light of regional competition for vital ports and the Bab Al -Mandab Strait. The Sudan site, which extends over a strategic coast, is a sensitive element of this tension, which can lead it to take political positions which preserve its supreme national interests in a volatile environment.
In the context of the caller, recent military movements of the forces of Marshal Khalifa Haftar cannot be overlooked in the border triangle between Sudan, Egypt and Libya. These movements, which the Sudanese army has encountered deterrent measures, can be understood as part of the efforts to impose an indirect influence on a region which forms a corridor of arms and combatants, or to send political and security messages to the regional parties that the east of Libya will not be in isolation of the dynamics of what is happening in Sudan. How to read these transformations given the hypothesis of the end of the war in Sudan?
There are two possible approaches to the answer: the first is a cautious optimism. The concern of regional supporters of the militia can lead to a decrease in external interference, which opens for the Sudanese army a strategic opportunity to accelerate its military operations, and restore control of the whole national territory, in particular in the light of the absence of diplomatic and logistical coverage which provided the militia to continue the conflict. This regional change can constitute a time of wipers to reduce the influence of rebellion, if Sudan is better exploited.
The second: the power failure, on the other hand,, certain local parties allied with the militia can try to exploit the repercussions of the regional war to feed the internal situation, by waving the exploitation of supply crises and potential services, in order to impose a new reality. This scenario threatens to create an internal artificial chaos, which requires the vigilance of the national forces for the country’s security and stability.
On the other hand, are there regional movements towards peace? Where the news reported to talk about Qatari and silent Turkish movements to relaunch the way of peace in Sudan, similar to the old Qatari role in Darfur. Although these efforts can contribute to creating a necessary political balance, the construction of the Sudanese state at this stage requires a rational approach to the equations of power and the State, and a specific budget between the external openness and the protection of the national decision, far from isolation or ideological discourse.
In the light of this tense regional scene and rapid military and political movements, the opportunity appears, according to what appears from the face of truth, to put pressure on the restoration of peace in Sudan, through a mixture of military decision and political action. However, this requires a strong internal will and a serious international effort. There is no doubt that Sudan, with its geopolitical location, is always at the heart of regional sales, which requires in -depth understanding and precise knowledge of the paths of power to ensure its sustainable security and peace.
You are fine and well.
Sunday June 15, 2025 ad shglawi55@gmail.com
