Has Hemedti left the Sudanese scene?! – The face of truth – ✍️ Ibrahim Shaqlawi
On the occasion of the sixty-ninth anniversary of Sudan's independence, rebel Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo “Hemedti”, leader of the Rapid Support militia, delivered an audio speech broadcast to the media. This speech raised fundamental questions about its content and its political and security implications in light of current conditions. This analysis examines the depth of the contradictions contained in the speech, its impact on the Sudanese political and security scene, as well as the signals it conveys on the condition of the leader himself and the future of his militias, taking into account developments on the ground. situation in which information mixes between credibility and media war.
It is therefore important, as we attempt to dismantle the narrative, to focus on the obvious contradiction between the stated narrative and the reality on the ground. Regarding Hemedti's remarks about the “victories” of his forces, the reality reflects the withdrawal of the militias before the army in several areas, notably the liberation of the town of Sinja, which represents a strategic victory for the army and strengthens its control over the areas in power. between Sennar, Al-Jazeera and the Blue Nile. Likewise, the advance of the army in the locality of Bahri, which is about to reach the Corps of Signals, reflects its approach of total control of Khartoum, taking into account the active operations hidden in the Al-Axis axis. Muqrin and the east of the Nile, crossing the Al-Manshiya Bridge. The Zarq strategic base operation also confirms the ability of the armed forces to restore pivotal points that were under the control of the militias.
This ground reality reveals the contradiction of Hemedti's speech, and also indicates the existence of a real crisis in his ability to direct events or control the course of the war. The other problem is that the fact that the man used an audio speech rather than a live appearance has raised questions about his health, given what the “Al-Youm News” website reported about a source from a volunteer organization residing in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, who said the militia leader's health condition had clearly deteriorated over the past month. During the last meeting he had with him, as he had been suffering from viral hepatitis for a long time and because of the nervous disorders and his psychological state, the side effects had worsened. He had become so thin that he could no longer stand up. . Given that in the past the man appeared among his soldiers as a field commander, this account now reinforces the hypothesis that he withdrew from this role, while he appears to have been politically neutralized.
An attempt to convince the outside world also emerged during the speech by focusing on terms such as “human rights”, “democracy” and “civil government”, language that aims to convince the international community more than 'to address the Sudanese people. . For the first time, Hemedti's speech was broadcast without any significant attention from Sudanese people, including his supporters. Experts have described this discourse as the weakest since the start of the war, highlighting its lack of cohesion and the emergence of the language of psychological defeat. This characterization reflects the increasing erosion of his popularity among both his supporters and opponents, as he is no longer able to make a significant impact.
In addition, the contradictions between its speech and its practices on the ground reinforce the state of confusion and fragmentation within the ranks of the militia, which faces increasing pressure from the Sudanese armed forces on the ground. The speech also reveals the decline in international and regional support as well as the decline in external support that the militias previously enjoyed. The speech also appeared to be an attempt to present Dagalo as a conciliatory character, but it lacked credibility and coherence. It is clear that the speech ends an important phase of the rebellion and salutes another, with the weakness expressed in the coherence of the content of the speech, which reflects the collapse of this militia, faced with increasing military pressure and heavy losses on the ground. .
Furthermore, the speech failed to present a new vision or effective strategies, reflecting Hemedti's declining ability to lead the battle. The reactions of the government and the population also stand out in this context, with the Sudanese government describing the speech as “contradictory and doubtful in its authenticity”. The declarations of the Sudanese Minister of Information, Khaled Al-Aissar, aimed to reveal the discrepancy between Hemedti's declarations and the reality of the practices of his militia. As for reactions on social networks, the speech received little attention and experts called it the weakest since the start of the war, believing that it reflects the state of decline and frustration experienced by the rebel leader.
It is clear that this stage that the Rapid Support Militia is going through is similar to similar stages experienced by armed military groups that rebelled against the central state. We see this clearly in the Ugandan experience linked to Joseph Kony's Lord's Army, where his army was neutralized after losing international and regional support and isolated in remote areas in 2012. Likewise, rebel movements in Angola: which suffered a similar fate in 2002 after the elimination of its main leaders. Likewise, the Ethiopian experience with the Tigray rebellion, which began in 2020 between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray Liberation Front. The Tigray Front has taken control of large areas of northern Ethiopia, including the regional capital, Mekele. After two years of fighting, it was brought under control in November 2022 and the Ethiopian government regained control. These models suggest that insurgencies that lose external support eventually submit to central state authority.
Thus, according to these data, and according to what we see in reality, and in light of the advance of the Sudanese armed forces and the recovery of strategic areas, the balance of forces began to tilt in favor of the central state. This transformation opens the door to new scenarios that could reshape the Sudanese scene, strengthening the stability of the state and ending the era of rapid support. Reading Hemedti's recent speech indicates his departure from the Sudanese scene as a political and security actor, with a decline in regional and international support. This shows that the possible end of the war could be to submit the militia to the authority of the state, neutralize its leaders and reformulate the Sudanese reality in such a way as to guarantee great stability in which security would be restored and peace established for the Sudanese.
May you always be well.
Saturday January 4, 2025 AD (email protected)
