Liberation of the Gezira State: calculations on the ground and politics – The face of truth – ✍️ Ibrahim Shaqlawi
With the developments in the Sudanese war, the battle to liberate the State of Gezira and regain control of the city of Wad Madani constitutes a decisive turning point not only in the military context, but also in the political and economic balances of Sudan. This battle is not just a traditional confrontation between the army and the rapid support militia, but rather has deeper dimensions that make it a test of the Sudanese state's strategy and its ability to reorganize the balance powers inside and outside. In this article, we attempt to address these questions in some detail, in addition to the dimensions linked to the security and political calculations which explain this great interest on the part of the Sudanese, the leaders of the State, the government and all observers.
From an operational point of view, the preparation of this operation took a lot of time in terms of monitoring and coordination. The Sudanese Armed Forces relied on advanced offensive tactics with the aim of exhausting the enemy and revealing their military capabilities and weaknesses, and then began. fire control operations and targeting of the militia's strategic centers of gravity. This strategy saw the extensive use of warplanes and drones, which neutralized enemy field commanders and cut lines of communication, paralyzing its movements and weakening its ability to maneuver and resupply. This strategy was followed by significant advances on the ground by the Sudanese army, which included several main axes:
Al-Manaqil Axis: The army made major breakthroughs, allowing it to control strategic villages such as Al-Talha and Al-Warraq. Still in the Sennar axis: the army was able to control the town of Haj Abdullah, which increases pressure on the southern axis leading to Wad Madani. Also in the Al-Khayari axis: this resulted in the control of important sites such as Al-Shabarqa and Kabri Al-Sharif Yaqoub, which placed the militia in a weak defensive position and made it vulnerable to artillery directly from the army, in addition to the military. aircraft and drone sorties, which played a decisive role, as they carried out precise strikes targeting the militia's concentration centers and supply lines, which weakened its organizational capacity and led to the disintegration of its leadership structure.
This studied reality greatly improved the position of the army and gave it the advantage in intelligence work, control and progression thanks to the reconnaissance units on which it relied in special operations and security operations. infiltration into enemy ranks. This strategy preoccupied the militia and completely crippled its capabilities. The militia, which previously used the island state as an arena for its violations, is now suffering from clear internal disintegration. It lost many of its field commanders during direct fire operations and airstrikes, leading to the remaining elements being isolated in separate pockets. Moreover, the destruction of supply lines crossing regional borders, notably from Chad and other unofficial corridors, has placed it in a stifling strategic siege.
In light of this, it is also necessary to consider the political dimensions, as the liberation of Wad Madani carries great sovereign symbolism. The city, as the heart of Gezira State, represents a strategic axis connecting central Sudan to the east and west, as well as the capital, Khartoum. Regaining control means not only securing vital routes, but also foiling attempts by militias and their supporters to impose a new political reality by establishing a false civil administration. Pursuant to the Declaration of Principles signed in Addis Ababa in February 2023 between the militia and the Coordination of Civil Forces “Taqadum”, which approved the creation of a civil authority to try to shape the characteristics of the aftermath of the war. Along with other provisions related to the protection of civilians and the opening of humanitarian corridors, these have not been implemented.
It is also important to emphasize the regional dimension. Wad Madani's release comes in light of growing international interest in the war in Sudan. Recent US sanctions against rebel leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo “Hemedti” and his economic enterprises represent a shift in the international stance towards supporting these forces and indicate a global awareness of the danger that the continuation of this conflict represents for the regional security. Regaining control of Al-Jazeera State also represents a good opportunity to submit the militia to any possible agreement that could represent the Turkish initiative aimed at a meeting between Sudan and the United Arab Emirates to stop providing it with weapons and fighters.
Despite military victories in the Jazira axis and accelerated measures to restore Wad Madani, Sudan's path to stability still requires multidimensional efforts. Everyone should be aware of this. It is certain that the success of the liberation of Wad Madani offers an opportunity to strengthen politics. the legitimacy of the Sudanese State and pave the way for a global process of stability. The restoration of security takes into account the social and humanitarian challenges left by the war. Also, from a social point of view, the liberation of the island offers an opportunity for the return of displaced people and the reconstruction of the social fabric affected by the war. Also, on the economic level, securing Wad Medani contributes to the resumption of the Gezira project, in addition to opening the main trade routes linking central Sudan to the east and west, which strengthens the recovery security and peace. the severity of the economic crisis.
So, according to what we see in reality, the battle for the liberation of Gezira State represents a true test of Sudan's ability to overcome the challenges of war and rebuild its national sovereignty. Success in this battle requires an integrated vision, combining military decisiveness, conscious political management and investment of regional and international support, to achieve lasting stability that restores Sudan's regional and international position. If invested wisely, the liberation of Wad Madani could be the true beginning of the end of the militia rebellion and the building of a new, secure and stable Sudan.
May you always be well.
Saturday January 11, 2025 AD. (email protected)
