Strategic options and alternatives to the Sudanese government in the treatment of decisions by Abu Dhabi. A logical practical plan – Strategic priorities, then short and medium -term tactical alternatives with positive / negative points and procedures that can be implemented immediately ✍️ D. Abu al -Tayyib Adam Hassan Suleiman
Strategic options and alternatives to the Sudanese government in the treatment of decisions by Abu Dhabi.
A logical practical plan – strategic priorities, then short and medium -term tactical alternatives with positive / negative points and procedures that can be implemented immediately
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A. Strategic priorities (what the government should seek now)
1. Reduce political and diplomatic escalation while preserving the interest of sovereignty and security.
2. Protect organic economic means (ports, gold, agricultural fields, transfers) quickly.
3. Movement of international legal and diplomatic ways to contain or record economic and political damage.
4. Look for investment alternatives and regional and international partnerships (Egypt, Türkiye, China, Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia, African partners).
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1) Abu Dhabi will not be able to bear the loss of Sudanese gold and Sudanese ports, and therefore he seeks to open the diplomatic path of my interests (reduction of tension – for a certain time or for a short period to achieve certain objectives)
What: opening of secret / semi-formal channels to reduce the dialect and agree with bilateral technical procedures (for example, take up certain air transport lines or humanitarian shipping on conditions).
Why: it prevents immediate losses (tourism, transport, transfers, project disruption).
Immediate steps: Approval of conditions _ Tactical procedure – To send an independent diplomatic envoy, with the need to use a mediator of neutral countries (Kuwait / Oman / Qatar), offered a temporary allocation of economic measures in exchange for clear guarantees.
Risk: this gives the impression of the National – it must be balanced with strong national messages.
2) Legal and international pressure (collection of rights and transparency of the question)
What: Documentation of water decisions and their economic impact, and raise questions or complaints to international / regional organizations (Civil Aviation Organization, Commercial Organization, Arab Security Council / League / African Syndicate as political pressure mechanisms).
Why: he puts the question of disagreement in the context of rules and draws the attention of international partners.
Immediate stages: Training a legal and diplomatic team, assembling evidence, launching diplomatic campaigns among the partners.
Risk: Long procedures and take time.
3) The limited economic response in retaliation (smart barter)
What: Agreement procedures aimed at maintaining interest (suspending specific specific services / concessions) or imposing close control over resource flows towards the Emirates.
Why: he sends a power message and recovers a negotiation document.
Immediate steps: examining existing agreements (in particular major projects such as the Abu Amama project, if there are executive arrangements), temporarily stop new licenses.
Risk: this can lead to a wide escalation and long -term losses.
4) Rapid economic diversification (the longest alternative)
What: transfer export channels (gold, crops, sea ports), search for replacements and strengthen regional partnerships.
Why: rely on a market or partner and prevents economic extortion.
Immediate steps: Administrative procedures To facilitate exports to new parties, encourage banks to correspond to regional / Asian banks, support local exports with credits and logistics.
Risk: it needs solid internal investments, investments and policies.
5) Improve internal governance and transparency (convert a weak point into a negotiation power)
What: tighten control over the export of resources (in particular gold), the fight against smuggling, the improvement of customs and financial systems.
Why: it gives the government the international credibility and reduces the arguments of the other part of “the exploitation of chaos”.
Immediate steps: imposing temporary controls on gold exports, publication of transparent reports on income, inviting international observers if necessary.
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C. An immediate practical plan (implemented in the days – weeks)
1. Form a common crisis unit (external, financial, transport, ports, security) – Mission: evaluation of impact and emergency procedures.
2. Approval to send a double -nature envoy (diplomat / economic) to Abu Dhabi via an intermediary to immediately negotiate the opening of humanitarian / travel corridors.
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4. The start of a diplomatic campaign against the African Union and the United Nations to present evidence and guarantee political coverage.
5. Launch of internal measures against smuggling and the imposition of a gold system and following ports.
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D. Each alternative – Summary
Diplomatic regulations: fasting and reduces immediate losses – but this may require political concessions.
Legal / international canals: it gives long -term but slow legitimacy.
An economical response: effective if you have pressure papers (such as your control of export methods or port agreements) – risk managers.
Diversification and alternative partnerships: the most security in medium / medium remote, but it needs time and reforms.
Internal and transparent reform: always necessary, which improves the negotiation position of Sudan.
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E. A brief process recommendation (summary)
1. Start immediately with a mixture of: (a) a diplomatic path to reduce climbing, and (b) internal measures to protect resources and diversify partners.
2. Open simultaneous legal and diplomatic ways to document damage and involve regional and international partners.
3. Invest in the transparency of the mineral and ports sector as a defensive and diplomatic tool.
4. Keep the capacity for limited economic response as a negotiation option, but use it with caution to avoid a long economic war.
