Sudan's hedges in case of Renaissance Dam collapse – the face of truth – ✍️ Ibrahim Shaqlawi
There is active talk these days about the possible collapse of the Renaissance Dam and the fact that 70% of Sudan's land area is threatened by catastrophic flooding. This claim, which deliberately portrays Sudan as a dangerous and unstable country, attempts to rely on both myth and science. This is undoubtedly based on a social study of the nature of Sudanese society that believes in the myth. The popularity goes as far as exaggeration. In addition to addressing educated elites with non-specialized scientific logic. the claims were based on Sheikh Farah Wad Taktuk's prophecy 100 years ago… in which he said: (Khartoum will expand to the town of Soba, south of the capital, Khartoum, and then it will come to fires and drowning) but now that the war has taken place and the fire has taken place.. people are now waiting for drowning.. in reference to the confirmation of 50% of the speeches of the righteous man until present.. It's not what the Lebanese fortune teller (Laila Abdel Latif) says, it's the same thing, that there is an Arab country. Disasters are promised… and people unconsciously believe it… The proof is that the situation is not what it seems, because there are specialized organizations that set goals and move towards them. by exploiting the nature of thought and the nature of the formation of consciences and convictions in our societies.
Additionally, news reports attributed to the New York Times reported real danger to 150 million citizens in Egypt and Ethiopia due to a technical defect in the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which could lead to its collapse and flow of water downstream. country, which could cause the destruction of dams and the drowning of certain cities, whether in Egypt or Sudan… without mentioning in the news text the nature of this technical defect which threatens to collapse. This therefore remains a speech that contradicts itself. the logic of science without specifying the defect.. A video has also circulated these days on social networks concerning the collapse of a dam in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi.. Let us quote one of the engineers. Experts said the video had. nothing to do with Nairobi… and that he is in Nairobi these days and there is no dam collapse… because it is likely that the video clip belongs to a dam in the Guangdong province in southern China… pointing out that the video is incorrect… pointing out that the word explosion itself is suspect because dams collapse and do not explode. As he said, there are about 11 large water dams in Kenya, all of which are in good condition. safety, the safety limit for earthquakes, has been included in the design, and this is a normal situation, so there is no reason to be afraid.
Accordingly, talking about a possible collapse of the Renaissance Dam, as experts see it, is a bit exaggerated and exaggerated, taking into account the studies, the nature of the implementation and the companies responsible for the implementation …and the relative distance of the dam from seismic zones. Despite this, there is no absolute confidence in natural disasters when we talk about water facilities and their collapse due to… Nature, represented by earthquakes, hurricanes, landslides , climate change… There is no complete confidence in dams either. safety parameters, because the variables of nature are not guaranteed… in view of the climate changes announced by the United Nations during its climate change conference in 2022, also known as On behalf of COP27, which was held from November 6 to 18, 2022 in the Egyptian city of Sharm el-Sheikh. Therefore, there are major changes at local and regional levels. An example of this is in Sudan. Recently we see that Nile State and Northern State have been. not affected by heavy rains until recently. Although there are flash floods in the Butana plains, there is rain at this level, and in the month of September, this is considered an important climatic variable that requires integrated studies that even include timing. of agriculture of its different types.
All this prompts the relevant authorities of our country to study the potential advantages and disadvantages of the Renaissance Dam in order to face all possible scenarios in all cases in case the Ethiopian state manages to store 74 billion m3. M. With the end of the storage, the area could become active and the possibility of earthquakes would increase due to the enormous pressure of the water on the ground and on the body of the dam, which could lead to earthquakes. land knowing that Sudan is located in a seismic zone. continental mass, far from the dividers, it is only affected by slight tremors coming from afar while the areas where earthquakes are active are located in areas of moving plates and are therefore exposed to seismic movements. The Renaissance Dam is collapsing, you need to know how the collapse occurs and then know the impact of the dam collapse.
As we know, the collapse of a rubble dam is different from the collapse of a concrete dam, and this is what the experts say. Therefore, a thorough simulation must be carried out according to a hydraulic model in order to provide the necessary accuracy to enable management. with the event. As announced, this was studied and agreed upon at some point. Studies by Sudanese researchers and experts were presented in this regard, as the studies explained how the collapse occurred, whether in the context of the event. concrete dam, in saddle dam, or both, and which part will collapse, and the extent of the collapse, whether it is a partial or complete collapse. The study considered that it was a total and momentary collapse of the two dams together in all their width and depth… and vice versa… knowing that the two dams are separated by a mountain with eight spillways in their gates and are based on two mountains at their ends… where the height of the concrete dam is 150 meters and the height of the Sarj aggregate dam is 50 meters and has a concrete facade 5 kilometers wide and 50 meters deep, with a leak. -anti-corrosion barrier below, 40 meters deep… in most of its parts.
Therefore, any study of dam collapse must first explain how it collapses with all of the above specifications, in addition to the fact that both dams have approximately 2,000 electronic warning devices early… therefore allowing advance forecasts. a speech that does not specify how the dam collapses is not considered to have scientific value… as is assumed. A concrete or aggregate dam collapses like an earthen dam. This is a very big mistake. Despite this, a number of experts see the importance of taking precautions around civil works like spillways. An example of this is to focus on the completion of the Rahad and Kenana spillways, in addition to operational precautions in case of huge spills. resources that are not available under normal circumstances. In addition to opening paths to the Butana and Abu Dulaiq plains, estimated at over 10 million acres, are available for agriculture.
This makes the Butana Plain the largest project to absorb any water flow above normal rates, in addition to being an agro-pastoral food security project for the three countries to achieve national water security and food. The Rahad and Kenana canals, which must begin their implementation, while adjusting their location according to the changes that have occurred After the elevation of Rusayr… all this certainly requires political will and high executive capacity… putting the emphasis on projects between the three countries to strengthen economic integration and ensure food and energy security… It has therefore become necessary for the Ministry of Water Resources to carry out urgent studies… for all the expected risks and gets by… So, with clear recommendations that allow us to face all these scenarios, this could be the beginning of restoring the Nile riverside lands for agricultural purposes and reducing population densities in a certain number of risk areas thanks to the development of new areas.
It is therefore important to have a clear vision and be ready to face all possible developments. We wanted, through all this, to answer the important question of what precautions are possible for experts in Sudan, what are they exploring to spare the world. country from the disastrous effects of a possible collapse of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, although there is a 1% chance of this. Is it necessary to accelerate the conduct of the necessary studies before the end of this year so that this fifth filling corresponds? to the fourth, which was completed last September. Perhaps we are heading towards a possible fifth filling during this year. In general, Sudanese experts must take serious and practical precautions in the event of a dam collapse.
God bless you..
May you always be well.
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