The days separate us from the inauguration of the Renaissance dam ..! – The face of the truth – ✍️ Ibrahim Shaqlawi
On the impact of the countdown on the opening of the Ethiopian Renaissance dam, the region awaits transformations that can redraw the water development and safety map in the Nile basin. The project, which has occupied the region since 2011, now has been neglecting as an unimaginable reality, with a storage capacity of 74 billion cubic meters and an electrical energy estimated at 5,000 megawatts.
This project, which has long been the subject of artistic political controversy between Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia, today opens up a new window to complementary opportunities, as well as real water challenges that require effective strategies of estuaries.
Ethiopia has announced the completion of construction and intended to invite Sudan and Egypt to attend the opening in September, to enter the water crisis in East Africa a new stage. After years of controversy as to the possibility of disturbing the project, it has become clear that the dam has become an existing fact, which requires the reformulation of policies and the maximization of advantages, without being satisfied with traditional positions.
Egypt always adheres to the request of a binding legal agreement which regulates the filling and functioning in order to preserve its historical part of the Nile water, while Sudan faces a more complex equation, because of its geographical location between the source and the estuary. The risks associated with the absence of a water coordination agreement remain, in particular during the years of drought and extension of drought or sudden flows, but in return, the chances of the Sudan dam seems excellent if they are improved.
Permanent Sudanese experts, such as Dr. Othman Al -Tom and Dr Saif Al -Din Hamad, that the dam can reduce the silt up to 70% in RSIRS and Sennar dams, and this is one of the seasonal floods, and improves water storage in Sudanese dams. The site of the Ethiopian generation stations near the states of Sennar, Qadarf and the Blue Nile, which suffers from the absence of a stable electric current, allows Sudan to import electricity at preferential prices which improve agricultural and industrial development in these promising states, and perhaps all Sudanese states through the national network.
One of the most common concerns is the possibility of the dam. However, this hypothesis lacks solid scientific evidence, especially since its conception was subject to international journals and carried out by specialized companies such as Italian “salini”, with the participation of technical elements of Sudan and Egypt during the follow -up stages. Is it realistic for the Sudanese position to rely on the hypothesis of a possible failure without practical alternatives?
What is necessary today is that Sudan goes from the role of the cautious observer to the role of the negotiation player, by creating a network of common interests with Ethiopia. The expansion of the electrical connection can form a practical example, because the current capacity of 100-250 MW can be gradually increased to 1000 MW. This expansion requires a regular exchange of technical information on employment, which improves confidence and opens the way to sustainable cooperation far from political tensions.
As for the relationship with Egypt, it is a geographic, historical and security necessity that cannot be exceeded, but it is important to differentiate coordination and dependence. The interests of Sudan are not identical to Egypt: while Cairo is afraid of its water, Sudan mainly needs to organize flows and improve its capacities in the energy and agricultural aspect of expansion.
Sudan has promising development opportunities for the peoples of the three countries if the dam is used in strategic plans aimed at extending the agricultural area and developing energy -based industries. Earth is available, water can become more regular, electrical energy is available, while Egypt has an agricultural expertise in the appearance of agricultural reform, and Ethiopia has the capacity to generate a hydroelectric. If these elements meet, they can form a real regional integration base.
However, what raises concern is the absence of political and media elites in Sudan of this fateful debate. Silence surrounds a file which would constitute a starting point towards the sustainable development of all states and to be an economic crane in exceptional circumstances that the country is going through.
With the official inauguration this month, Sudan will be offered two options: either to actively engage in the management of the new stage by cooperation and joint initiatives, or to remain subject to reactions, and to the resulting possible losses.
According to the face of the truth, the opportunity is still in place, but it is crossed over time. What is necessary is an explicit technical dialogue and intelligent diplomacy capable of converting the crisis into an opportunity. The countries of origin are not built by hesitation and they are not managed. The inauguration of the Renaissance dam is not only an Ethiopian celebration, but rather a station in the watershed to redraw the future of water and development in the region. And if Sudan treats this moment better, it can find a real lever in the dam.
You are fine and well.
