The Middle East after the fall of Assad: an analysis of the balance of power and the future of the region ✍️ Hisham Mahmoud Suleiman
the introduction:-
Since the outbreak of the Syrian crisis in 2011, Syria has become an arena of regional and international conflict. The survival of Bashar al-Assad's regime in power has been a pivot for the balance of power in the Middle East, like powers like Iran. and Russia relied on the regime as a strategic ally, while other powers like Turkey and the Gulf states sought to overthrow it. The fall of Assad will not simply be the end of a political system, but rather the beginning of a new era. brings with it major challenges and opportunities to reshape the characteristics of the region
First, the repercussions of the fall of Assad on the regional balance:
1. Iran and its allies
Iran is Assad's main supporter, and his fall will be a major blow to his regional influence. Syria is seen as the bridge that connects Tehran to Hezbollah in Lebanon, through which Iran's weapons and logistical support pass. Its ability to support Hezbollah will diminish, weakening its influence in Lebanon and threatening the “Shia Crescent” project it seeks to expand.
2. Türkiye
Turkey, which has supported the Syrian opposition from the start, will view Assad's fall as a victory for its regional influence. However, the potential chaos could complicate its ambitions, particularly in light of its conflict with the Kurds in northern Syria. seek to strengthen its influence by supporting opposition forces and reshaping the political scene to serve its security and economic interests.
3. Gulf countries
For Gulf states, Assad's fall is a victory over Iran, its biggest regional rival. However, the challenge will be to guide the transition phase towards stability and prevent the emergence of extremist forces that could exploit the political vacuum.
4. Israel
Despite Israel's hostility toward the Assad regime as a planner, its stability has provided something of a negative record. Its fall could weaken Iran's influence, but it could open the door to the rise of undisciplined or extremist forces on its borders, which would place Tel Aviv in a state of insecurity. facing a new dilemma.
Second, the internal challenges in post-Assad Syria:
——–
1. The danger of chaos and disintegration
The fall of Assad could lead to a political and security vacuum with the escalation of the power struggle between the different factions. Syria is a multi-ethnic and multi-sectarian country, which increases the risk of descending into deeper civil war or division. the country in spheres of influence.
2. Reconstruction
Syria is considered one of the countries most devastated by war. Reconstruction will pose an enormous challenge that will require enormous international investment, which could complicate the situation given the great power rivalry for influence in the post-war period.
3. Transitional justice
After the fall of the regime, the question of accountability for war crimes and violations will arise. Establishing transitional justice will be necessary to ensure long-term stability, but it could raise sensitivities and hinder reconciliation efforts.
Third, the international dimensions of the repercussions of Assad's fall:
1. Russia: –
——-
Russia, which has invested politically and militarily in Assad's survival, will lose its most important base in the Middle East if the regime falls. This will weaken its influence and force it to make difficult choices to reorganize its cards in the region.
2. United States: –
————
For Washington, Assad's fall may represent an opportunity to weaken Iran and Russia, but it carries risks of instability and the emergence of extremist forces that could complicate its regional goals.
3. Europe: –
——-
With the fall of the regime, the challenges linked to refugees and the security crisis will increase for Europe. It will need to play a greater role in reconstruction and support stability to ensure that the impact of the crisis on its national security is reduced.
Fourth, future scenarios in the Middle East:
———
1. Long-term chaos
If a comprehensive political settlement is not reached, Syria could turn into a hotbed of chaos similar to the Libyan model, where different factions vie for power with the support of regional and international powers.
2. Division of Syria: –
———
Syria could end up being divided into zones of influence, with Kurds controlling the northeast, opposition forces controlling some areas, and areas remaining under the control of extremist groups.
3. Relative stability: –
———-
In the best-case scenario, an international settlement could be reached, leading to the formation of a transitional government inclusive of all sects, with international support for reconstruction.
For all of the above, the fall of the Assad regime will constitute a historic turning point in the Middle East. This event could reshape the regional and international balance of power, but it carries risks of chaos and instability. Balance in the post-Assad era requires international and regional coordination to manage political and security transformations in a way that ensures Syria's stability and prosperity and prevents the repercussions of the crisis from destabilizing the entire region.
