The renaissance dam and the safety of autumn water – the face of truth – ✍️ Ibrahim Shaqlawi
In light of the overlap of political and climatic crises in the region, especially in the Horn of Africa and the Nile basin, the challenges linked to the management of water resources increases year after year. The preparations for the fall season in Sudan are no longer simple technical arrangements to control water levels or control its flow, but rather directly affect the security and stability of the country, which reflects the transformation of this question into a national matter which exceeds the limits of technology into broader political and strategic dimensions.
From this point of view, the urgent need to achieve a precise balance emerges between the rapid response to the risks of potential floods, and to take advantage of the opportunities offered by the rainy season thanks to programs such as #Water harvest, at a time when the state of ambiguity is always on the management and exploitation of the Renaissance aquatic dam, which imposes additional challenges on Sudan and Renaissance file.
According to the “Sudan News” platform, the Egyptian expert, Dr. Abbas Sharqi, stressed that the operation of the NAHDA dam witnesses an unprecedented disorder, because the lake was filled with around 55 billion cubic meters without using the effectiveness of the turbine, which it described as “a technical failure” which has great political and economic repercussion. While the dam is supposed to provide electricity to Ethiopia and its neighbors, the lack of the operation threatens to pass the waves of complete flood, as expected at the end of July, which constitutes a direct threat to Sudan.
Although some Sudanese Experts, Such As Dr. Othman Al -Tom, See that concerns are “exuggerated”, and indicate the existence of a technical program to coordinate damage UNTIL 2026, will be presented to the permanent water commtite, and it is is expected to reducing risks and enhancing Between Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia, The Absence of Ethiopian Transparency in Sharing Operating Data Raises Serious Technical and Political des doubts, in particular in the shadow of the previous ones, the use of the dam as a political pressure card in tense relations between Khartoum, Adis Abeba and Cairo.
On the other hand, yesterday, the report of the “in-affective” basin for the period from July to September 2025, indicating the stability of the situation of rain and water in Sudan, Egypt, Ethiopia and South Sudan. The report does not expect dangerous floods during this period, despite the registration of higher rains than usual in certain regions, such as a lake, Talna. The system depends on advanced models such as WRF and Mikehydro to provide precise expectations that are updated daily, in a way that contributes to prevention and protection of around 2.2 million people, and covers the main areas exposed to floods, the most important of which are: Lake Talna, Paro-Aquobo-Satab, Blue Nile, Statical Atbara.
Internally, despite the climate warnings issued by the Sudanese general meteorological authority, Sudan is expected to face a difficult autumn season in light of clear administrative fragility. The meeting of the Supreme Autumn Emergency Committee, led by the governor of Khartoum, revealed the size of the gap between what is required and possible, in particular after the loss of most of the fleet of mechanisms following the sabotage and looting of the rapid support militia during the war epidemic in April 2023.
Despite the efforts made by preparing the banks to open the channels, despite their importance, they are always lower than the level of ambition in the absence of pre-sympathetic planning and the adoption of folklore methods instead of organized institutional work. This places the state in front of a major challenge containing potential disasters, and transforms the rain and the floods of natural phenomena into political crises and possibly in terms of security.
On the other hand, the Sudanese Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources, through the Unit of implementation of the dams, implements its plan in the updated program “for the Water Harvest 2025-2030”, and Le Plan includes the implementation of 7,500 projects, from small dams, wells and ecavations, aimed at providing water for rural projects. Construction of the new one.
However, these efforts collide with a fragile reality on the level of financing, infrastructure and security conditions. Despite the start of the first phase of the plan in 2016, only 60% of its objectives were achieved due to administrative instability, while large areas of the country suffer from the absence of the simplest water collection techniques. In addition to this, a societal and cultural challenge linked to the low awareness of the importance of managing these projects, which limits its impact on the promotion of food security or the adaptation of climate change.
In conclusion, the expected floods this year seem to be caused by the intersection of two main factors: a technician / environment associated with high rain rates and the exploitation of the Renaissance dam. A policy / administrative is the low infrastructure of Sudanese institutions to deal with natural risks.
Thus, the Sudanese citizen, in particular the farmer, does not face the banks of the blue and white Nile and the main Nile, the danger of rain and floods alone, but rather pays the price of unexpected decisions of Addis Ababa, in addition to the lack of adequate qualification of effective irrigation networks.
Consequently, what is necessary, according to the face of the truth, is not limited to hedges and seasonal procedures, but also requires the redefinition of the management of Sudanese water files as a sovereign and strategic problem, which requires firm positions in the regional negotiation, and long -term planning which links rural development with sustainable infrastructures, and makes water harvest anterior. As for talking about the “human season of the season” without approaching the political and economic roots of the challenges, it will only be a temporary silence of an injury that will remain open.
You are fine and well
Thursday July 3, 2025 ad shglawi55@gmail.com
