The Turkish initiative: will it stop the war or disintegrate the state structure – The face of truth – ✍️ Ibrahim Shaqlawi
Amid the complexities of the Sudanese scene, the Turkish initiative to find a formula for consensus between Sudan and the United Arab Emirates emerged as a diplomatic measure aimed at ending the war. However, its controversial details have opened the door to major questions about its true purposes and whether it is appropriate. this will lead to lasting peace or pose a new threat to Sudanese sovereignty. In this article, let's discuss the leaked items to try to explain them in more detail, then conclude with our take on what's in the leaks.
The initiative, which leaks said included halting UAE support for the militia in exchange for Sudan withdrawing its international complaint, ostensibly appears to be a proposal aimed at easing tensions. However, dropping the complaint means that Sudan loses the legal and diplomatic pressure card needed to condemn the parties involved in destabilizing its security, which exposes the country to the possibility of indirectly resuming its military support.
As for reducing media escalation and opening channels of communication between Sudan and the United Arab Emirates, this is a good thing, even if these measures are not without risks. Previous experiences have shown that engaging in dialogues with uncertain outcomes can be used to strengthen external influence, especially if they are not accompanied by strict mechanisms ensuring respect for national sovereignty.
Concerning the reconstruction aspect, the formation of a joint committee with Emirati and Turkish funding seems to have a development dimension, but in practice it can lead to mortgaging vital sectors under the control of donors. Infrastructures are not just economic projects, but rather strategic tools that can be used to influence the sovereign decisions of the state, requiring careful consideration before accepting any arrangement that could lead to reducing Sudanese control over its abilities.
One of the most controversial points of the initiative is the proposal to integrate the militia into the regular army with external support. Integrating such forces without clear standards and accountability for past violations threatens to undermine the cohesion of the military institution and opens the door to internal divisions that could weaken the ability to confront security challenges and lead to a popular revolution to get rid of everyone. . Furthermore, external support for this operation could foster dual loyalties within the army, which represents a threat to Sudanese national security. This certainly takes the country back to the days before April 15, 2023 AD.
On the political side, discussions about involving civilians in supporting specific groups such as the Civil Forces Coordination “Taqadum” reflect an intention to direct the political process in ways that serve external agendas, instead of seeking a fair and complete representation of all national actors. armed forces through an electoral mandate. Therefore, the lack of a real consensus, “combing it with lice”, could lead to a weakening of the domestic front, making Sudan more vulnerable to regional and international interventions.
Furthermore, leaks regarding the regulation of the entry of weapons under international control add another dimension of danger. External control of the country, especially if neighboring countries participate, could reduce Sudan's ability to secure its borders and effectively manage its security record. Let us also not forget that Sudan has a system of defense industries. This clause implicitly makes it besieged and subject to the will of the States.
Regarding general amnesty and national reconciliation programs, settlements that ignore justice represent a great danger to the social fabric. Declaring an amnesty inclusive of all parties without establishing clear mechanisms to hold accountable those responsible for previous violations against citizens can lead to reinforcing the culture of impunity, which reproduces the crisis in various forms.
What the Turkish initiative proposes may appear at first glance to be a step towards peace, but in essence it includes conditions likely to restrict national will and open the door to new external tutelage. Sudan today faces an existential challenge, which consists not only of ending the war, but also of ensuring that solutions to the crisis arise from a national will that preserves the sovereignty of the country and responds to the aspirations of his people. The Sudanese Armed Forces, which represent the backbone of security and sovereignty, will not accept any agreement that dictates humiliating conditions or jeopardizes the unity of the country.
Likewise, the Sudanese who have made sacrifices for their dignity and independence will not accept the solutions imposed on them from abroad. Therefore, preserving the unity and security of the country requires a firm stance that rejects any interference that would weaken the sovereignty of the state or undermine the dignity of its citizens. Furthermore, according to local media, the speech of Lieutenant General Yasser Al-Atta, First Deputy Commander of the Army and member of the Sovereign Council, during the independence speech established a clear framework for any negotiation process possible and made the Jeddah Agreement a The security and humanitarian arrangements signed on May 11, 2023 form the basis of a solution that the Sudanese look forward to implementing to restore security and achieve peace.
Accordingly, from what we see of the truth, we can say: the leaks from the Turkish initiative, whether real or fabricated, reflect complex political and security dimensions that cast a shadow over the Sudanese scene. On the one hand, these leaks could represent an attempt to impose a high negotiating ceiling that would test the state's ability to resist internal and external pressures, and perhaps explore the positions of political actors. in Sudan and create space for future agreements. On the other hand, it could be a tool to hinder any progress in negotiations to end the war, keeping the country in a cycle of continued exhaustion as its resources erode and its crises worsen. It is also possible that these leaks reflect the desire of parties seeking to weaken the state by exhausting the armed forces, other regular forces and popular resistance, and by dismantling its security structure, so as to serve strategic objectives leading to the beyond national interests. , and reshapes the balance of power in favor of international and regional powers who see Sudan as a step to realize their ambitions and impose their agenda, so let's wait.
May you always be well.
Wednesday January 8, 2025 AD. (email protected)
