Thinking out loud about the evolving situation in Sudan ✍️ Teacher: Fikri Kabbashi, Al-Amin Al-Arabi
Sudan's modern history has witnessed a number of popular revolutions that paved the way for the establishment of democratic systems. The first of these was the glorious October Revolution, the scent of which we feel on this great day. The uprisings of March and April, then the revolution of December… The proof is that despite the popularity and spontaneity of these revolutions, the fires of which were lit by the entire Sudanese people, they quickly escaped in the hands. of the actors and those who are at the origin of its momentum. However, each time, history repeats itself and things turn to others, and the people in the movement fall back and ride at the back of the pack until they disappear and the wheel starts spinning again and comes back to the rear . vicious circle… and history bears witness to leaders who failed to learn from previous experiences, while the people remained confused about their command and paid the price each time… Concerning acceleration and escalation of events taking place these days, and everyone is holding their breath at the possibility of the situation getting out of hand and spiraling out of control… but I believe this time this issue is fundamentally different from training in due to the entry of a new and powerful factor of influence that has not been taken into account, which is represented by the increased degree of awareness among the actors of the movement, because the vast majority of forces that influence the movement are young people. ..and this requires that the self-proclaimed leaders, before organizing the elections for the transition period and the escalation of leaders from the base of the party components, bring with them and before starting to make decisions, a new conception they have The first is the importance of measuring the public opinion of the Sudanese people. Interest in measuring public opinion (public opinion) in countries of the confined world began since the beginning of the 19th century, in 1824 AD. some newspapers and commercial institutions, especially in the United States of America, have begun to conduct interviews and opinion polls. However, the United States of America began to conduct mass opinion polls since 1930 in a scientific and organized manner, using voter lists on which public opinion was surveyed. This method gained great fame after confirming its ability to predict public opinion. presidential election results conducted by the George Gallup Institute to measure public opinion in 2017. 1936 AD, established in 1935 AD, then the Princeton University Office of Public Opinion Research in 1940 AD by Professor Hadley Cantrell then followed the creation of public opinion research centers at American universities, notably the University of Chicago and the University of Washington, and subsequently many associations were created, such as the American Society for Public Opinion Research and the Conference The International Committee for Public Opinion Research, which has more than 120 member countries, subsequently established several research centers to study public opinion in Europe. The dynamism of public opinion and its constant evolution require that political decision-makers, whether at the political, economic or social level, or at the national, central or local level, accurately measure, permanently, public opinion on various questions and constantly, with the aim of knowing the real reality in its magnitude. There is no doubt that accurate measurement of public opinion trends within the general public or among selected groups thereof will provide an opportunity for different governments and state agencies to do their part. It also allows the State and its various organizations to steer public opinion in a good direction, and to mobilize and concentrate its forces to steer it in a direction that supports political, economic and social development plans. , which is consistent with modern trends in influencing public opinion… Note that I believe the first shock occurred after the scientific measurement of public opinion according to the data. What I mentioned will be due to the stability of the appearance of a major change. in the political equation according to modern data that has occurred on the scene… which requires the introduction of new concepts… and which requires an objective analysis of the different components of the environment. Among the most important observations is that 60%. In my opinion, the components of the Sudanese people are currently considered among the educated youth segment… This leads to the importance of changing the leadership style… and change the communication language in the next step. . and the democratic transformation that followed is completely different from what was happening thirty years ago… It is also clear that the concept of traditional loyalty has withered… This is an important factor that imposes the need to have real programs which address the majority consciousness of this young majority in order to differentiate the different political components which present themselves as options for the future… Certainly, the most dynamic programs, effective and capable of meeting the ambitions of this majority and achieving progress, development and growth and being convincing will prevail. To those who will address… As I mentioned earlier, these are educated young people who base their choices according to objective criteria… going beyond traditional inherited affiliations… and that is what of which the political components should be aware from the beginning… and take it into account when developing their policies. strategies for the future and well before the elections… As for the recent change, that goes without saying. All theories of change specify that change goes through stages… and that we must move on to the next stage of construction, which is that of construction. it takes a high degree of awareness, responsibility, detachment and qualification to plan for the future… and the greatest dangers are rooted in the first stage, represented by crowds, counter-mobilizations and media escalation . all major components must work diligently to move to the second stage of democratic construction, which requires a serious approach in preparing and preparing for the peaceful transfer of power and power through free, direct and fair elections, with total justice and great transparency. ..
I believe the starting point is the need to recognize that the transition period needs a comprehensive national plan containing programs and projects that cover the remaining period of its life…and then to assign competent officials to implement them, each according to their specialization. and experience, in harmony and harmony.
Emphasis is placed on the main and important objective of the transition period, from which we must not deviate, that is, achieving democratic transformation, which requires the rapid completion of the draft law on the Constitution of Sudan, as well as the draft law on the Electoral Commission and conduct the population census for the year 2021 AD… This means that navigating Sudan's transition period towards continental security requires a cooperation and harmony between the military and civilian components, as well as the consensus of all active political and societal forces, without exclusion or exception.
It must also be recognized that democratic systems around the world always have an opposition and a government…and when elections are held, whoever wins represents the government…and whoever fails represents the opposition…If we want to limit the subject to the transition period, then the political incubator includes those who agree with the government and those who criticize it… like certain parties announcing their defection, and it is a natural question and inherent democratic right… but this certainly does not mean excluding them, removing them from the scene and canceling their presence… but rather giving them the right to… Expression and criticism as citizens, and it is a right guaranteed to them under the Constitution… Indeed, the most important principles of democracy demand and require the recognition of the other… and oblige those who exercise political activity to accept objective and constructive criticism… and to accept that the method of free, direct dialogue represents the effective means of resolving all differences…
Finally, the appeal is addressed to those responsible for the file. They need to save time, save effort and move straight to the next step. We and all major constituents must work diligently to move towards the second stage. which is the stage of democratic construction, which requires a serious approach in preparation and preparation for the peaceful transfer of power and power through free elections, directly and impartially, with full justice and great compassion. .. I still have hope and determination that the crisis will be resolved through local and national initiatives, efforts and efforts… without the need for external interventions… And if the solution comes through external interventions, it is an affirmation of the humble abilities, skills and rationalities of all leaders, elites and wise patriots… and the historical records and will not have mercy…
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