Three possible scenarios for the end of the war in Sudan – The face of truth – ✍️ Ibrahim Shaqlawi
The war in Sudan, which broke out in mid-April last year following a military coup carried out by the Rapid Support militia, with regional and local support from some political forces, is now crossing today a decisive step, because things are moving towards a possible end, which we try to read in this article, after all this time has passed since its outbreak, which cost the lives of… Many innocent people and caused great suffering to the Sudanese while the Sudanese army is making great progress. efforts to restore security and establish peace, it has become clear that we are heading towards three possible scenarios for the end of the war.
The first scenario: This involves the army continuing its military operations until it regains control, establishes security and establishes peace. Even if this option enjoys popular support, it could take time and further deteriorate the humanitarian situation in the country. the high cost of this scenario requires more patience and economic resources. And sacrifices in view of the challenges people face in terms of services, livelihoods, health and education, in addition to the deterioration of the economic and social situation due to displacement and asylum in a a number of countries. country.
The second scenario is the possibility of a sudden collapse of the militia due to the frustration it is experiencing, the enormous military pressure to which it is exposed, the loss of a number of commanders on the ground, the divergence of supply lines and the lack of control by its central management. In addition to the lack of a clear objective for the continuation of military operations, given the collapse of all the objectives declared on the morning of April 15, which were to control the direction of the army and neutralize its commander, then to restore democracy, fight the and eliminate the 1956 state. All these objectives were destroyed by the firmness and military tactics of the army, as belied by the incidents of brutal violations that took place by the militia against the Sudanese people wherever she set foot.
The third scenario foresees the restoration of security and peace through international pressure on the militia, particularly after its involvement in the commission of crimes classified as war crimes and crimes against humanity in the States of Al -Jazira and Darfur, which aroused the discontent of the international community. and sparked widespread condemnation. This scenario, which clearly seemed to be taking shape over the last period, has increased international condemnation and diplomatic activity of the Sudanese government, reflecting the brutal crimes that the rebellion continues to commit in Al- villages. Jazeera, Darfur and Khartoum State by indiscriminately bombing citizens. A number of brotherly and friendly countries, the League of Arab States, regional and international organizations, alongside America, the European Union and religious institutions and figures have come together to condemn.
This sudden rise of the international community could make this scenario closer to reality, according to observers, particularly in light of the Jeddah agreement on security and humanitarian provisions signed on May 11 last year, as the militia continued to delay implementation. The community now has ample opportunity to put pressure on the militia and its supporters after its creation. Public opinion could strongly tilt towards its classification as a terrorist organization, especially its war is now directed directly against defenseless citizens. a number of states, documented by their cameras and documented by the reports of human rights and humanitarian organizations affiliated with the United Nations.
According to this scenario, it can be said that closing the file of the militias and eliminating them is no longer only a legal and political question, but also a moral question, due to the embarrassment it has caused to the international and regional parties which , until recently, tried to maintain This is now a thing of the past. Not realizing the truth is the militia leadership and its supporters in the Taqadum Coordination Committee, who still insist on giving it political and media coverage.
In line with the partnership he signed in Addis Ababa last February in what was known as the Declaration of Principles, which did not result in a commitment to the commitments made therein, this issue has sparked a broad protest from the masses who besieged. The Taqadum leadership held a meeting for its supporters in London the day before yesterday. Observers believe that Taqadum's insistence on proceeding with this agreement is seen as a death certificate, after which it will be difficult for him to return to political work, given the magnitude of the situation. protests which were met inside and outside the hall by members of the Sudanese community in London, who managed to obstruct progress and raise the voices of Sudanese victims harmed by the violations of the rebellion.
Whatever scenario the situation in Sudan evolves towards, what ultimately matters is the search for peace and the transition to building a better future for the country. This is why we call, faced with the truth, to act. all active parties in this conflict to unite and agree on a solution that will restore stability and peace for the Sudanese. Overcoming political differences for the benefit of the nation and its citizens. The international community and regional and international organizations must also support efforts to restore security and stability in Sudan by taking decisions and dissuasive measures against aggressive militias.
May you always be well.
Saturday November 2, 2024 AD. (email protected)
