Transformations expected in the international scene: political expectations with strategic indications ✍️ d. Louay Abdel Moneim
In light of the rapid changes taking place in the international system, a set of political expectations which seem surprising for some, bearing indications of deep transformations in the positions of the main countries towards central questions in the Middle East and Africa. These expectations arise from a precise reading of strength equations, replacements in interests and climbing moral and human pressure on international actors.
* United States: transformations of moral and political discourse *
– With the Growing Global Human Rights Condemnation of the Collective Genocide Committed Against the Palestinian People, and the American Popular and Media Pressure Based On On Opinion Polls Supporting the Two -State Solution, Especially Between Young People and the Progressive Left, and in Light of the Escalation of Voices Civil Society that demands a review of unconditional support to Israel, after describing the situation in Gaza as a Humanitarian catastrophe whose responsibility is the responsibility of israel, Along with us preside (America First), is expected to adopt Trump, Known for His Unconventional Stances, Will Adopt A More Humane Discourse Towards the Palestinian Issue, Stressing (the Right of the Palestinian People To Self -Determination), and Refusing To Deprive Him of the Ingredientes of A Decent Life. This change will be a moral recovery of American policy towards peace of peace in the Middle East, and the end of the historical conflict, by persuading Israel that the sustainability of its security is linked to the creation of a fully sovereign Palestinian State, and has authority over the crossings and management of the Al-Aqsa mosque.
– In the Sudanese context, expectations indicate a firm position on Trump towards the rapid support militia, where he should classify him as a terrorist organization which committed a genocide against the Sudanese people, with a clear call to stop their regional support, in particular the United Arab Emirates. This position reflects the growing awareness of the danger of border militias on regional and international security.
* Russia: Confirmation of Sudanese sovereignty and the rejection of interventions *
– It is planned that Russian President Vladimir Putin will issue a favorable position of Sudanese sovereignty, more beautiful for an external intervention by welcoming the signing of a joint defense treaty between the two countries, stressing that Sudan is an allied country of Russia, and by rejecting any external interference which affects the unity of its land. This trend will undoubtedly improve the position of Sudan in the equation of international alliances and gives Moscow an additional influence in the horn of Africa and the presence of more present in the Red Sea.
* Regional and international attitudes: towards the condemnation of the genocide and support for stability *
– The League of Arab States and the African Union should have a joint appeal to the United Nations Security Council, calling for the cessation of funding for extermination against the Palestinian and Sudanese peoples, in a decision which reflects the growing collective consciousness of the dangers of the geopolitical manipulation of the fate of peoples.
AS for the level of non -western international power, Expectations indicate an unconventional rapprochement that included China, Russia, Iran, Turkey, Egypt is Heading Towards Supporting An Unconventional Candidates (Trump) for the Nobel Peace Prize, in Appreciation of his efforts to extinguish wars and respect the will of peoples) With Pakistan, Cambodia, Armenia and Azerbaijan that supported his candidacy for the prize. This trend would redefine the concept of peace in the international context, far from traditional Western domination, and eliminate cold or hot future wars, after the failure of Western approaches to put an end to conflicts, and to the light of the need for new peace models based on respect for the will of peoples, and not to impose solutions from abroad.
* Asian reconciliation and Eurasian integration *
– In East Asia, the recent elections in Taiwan have produced more pragmatic leaders, which improves calm opportunities with China, and the new president of Taiwan is expected to be issued by a speech towards China, in the light of the concentration of Trump’s policy on the American interior, and the economic, technical and military capacities of China.
– In Eastern Europe, as a result of military and economic exhaustion due to the russian -ukrainian war, there are indications of an increasing desire for both sides to end the conflict through economic and political settlements, eSpecially with the decline in western support for ukraine, and in this context Likely to lead (American -chinese mediation) to a radical transformation by taking power in ukraine, a new President, where it is expected that (he welcomes the establishment of Economic Integration) which finally folds the page of the page. The Russian -Ukrainian conflict and retains the alliances map in the region.
* Sudan: the victory of the State and the restoration of the initiative *
Finally, in the light of the progress of military operations in favor of the army and the regional and international support increasing in Sudan, it is expected that the head of the Souudan sovereign council will soon announce the victory of the people and the army over the terrorist militia, with a complete national call to build the country without exclusion and gratitude to the countries which supported Sudan in its ornament. This declaration will be a turning point on the path of the Sudanese state towards political stability and complete national reconciliation.
These expectations, and if they seem ambitious, are based on realistic indicators of climbing international pressure, and the priorities of the great powers modify their growing objective towards the classification of the inner house in order to open new markets in the light of the intensification of economic competitors, and the growing and official awareness of the dangers of polarization and absurd conflicts. Consequently, the realization of these declarations will be a reconstruction of global political discourse, towards more equity, respect for the will of the peoples and the prevalence of the logic of peace on the logic of hegemony.
