Twenty months: Are we close to restoring security?! – The face of truth – ✍️ Ibrahim Shaqlawi
Twenty months after the start of the war in Sudan, the features of the military and political developments that shaped its course are becoming clear following the military coup led by the Rapid Support militia against the Sudanese army in an attempt to seize power , supported by local and regional forces. This conflict, in which regional and international dimensions overlapped, generated major security and political challenges, and military developments contributed to changing the balance of power on the ground, making the political path more complex.
Initially, the Sudanese army appeared to be the main force facing the coup militias. With the escalation of events, the army was able to achieve significant military victories on the ground. The most recent of these successes is the “Wad Al-Sharif Rao Kamal” operation, which resulted in the destruction of the Al-Zarq base in North Darfur, a strategic supply point for the militia. This operation was a major blow because it disrupted the militia's ability to move effectively and reduced its ability to control territory, which contributed to the recovery of many areas that had been under its control. From Omdurman and Bahri to El Fasher, and from Sinja to Al Jazira. These military victories helped reduce the influence of militias in many vital areas.
At the level of military operations, the Sudanese army relied on a combination of complex strategies, including intelligence operations, aerial combat and ground tactics. These strategies target the core of the militia, neutralizing its leaders, destroying its main military sites and cutting its supply lines, causing it to gradually lose control. The Sudanese army was also able to liberate the Jabal Muwayh area and cross Khartoum's main bridges, which helped improve the army's progress and expand its control.
Despite these victories, rapid support militias continued to fiercely resist the army. But over time, these forces began to experience internal disintegration due to successive defeats. This disintegration led to the collapse of militia morale in many places. In addition to these defeats, the regional and international support he relied on began to gradually decline, particularly after widespread international condemnation of his violations against civilians, which contributed to the weakness of his political position.
On the other hand, the internal political repercussions have become more apparent with the escalation of divisions between Sudan's political components. After the overthrow of Al-Bashir's government in 2019, Sudan was left with a political vacuum that the military coup exploited to implement its agendas. This vacuum contributed to the escalation of the crisis and made it difficult to form a unified civilian government representing all Sudanese components. In this context, the military victories won by the Sudanese army have proven that they alone are not enough to overcome the political crisis. It therefore became necessary to rebuild the political process in the country.
At the same time, calls are growing for a political settlement that guarantees Sudan's long-term stability. These calls increased as the army advanced on the ground, as it became clear that the military solution could not be the only solution to the crisis. In its recent speeches, the Sudanese government has stressed the importance of holding a political dialogue after the end of the war, in which no one is excluded. Despite this, the path towards this dialogue remains strewn with pitfalls, particularly in light of the deep political divisions between the different forces, as well as the acute conflicts which plague the political process.
In this context, the head of the Sovereignty Council, Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, said the day before yesterday in a statement that dialogue depends on the return of citizens to their homes, which is the way to resume the political process and organize elections. in which the Sudanese people decide their political future without outside interference. This statement comes in light of efforts by the United Nations and its envoy Ramtane Lamamra to unify initiatives calling for peace in Sudan, demonstrating that the Sudanese government seeks to achieve comprehensive national reconciliation. It is clear that restoring trust between the Sudanese components will be an essential step in this direction.
At the regional and international levels, the great powers played a leading role in determining the course of the war. Countries such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia have provided logistical and political support to the Sudanese army in its confrontation with the militias, while other countries in the region, according to the Sudanese government, such as the United Arab Emirates , Chad and Libya, provided support to the Sudanese army. Support the militia. This was done by providing it with weapons and military equipment, which contributed to delaying the military resolution in favor of the Sudanese army.
At the same time, the United Nations continued to condemn violations committed by the Rapid Support Militia against civilians, while political support for the Sudanese army remained limited. For fear of the consequences of the war on the interests of international powers in the region, which reflects an unacceptable balance in the management of the Sudanese crisis.
Despite the military defeats suffered by the Rapid Support Militia, the military resolution does not represent the final solution to the crisis. A political solution remains urgently needed to ensure Sudan's stability after the end of the war. The Sudanese army will likely continue to pressure the militia until it ends its presence in the security and political process, accelerating its collapse. As the army advances on the battlefield, it is becoming clear that a return to dialogue between Sudanese national forces will remain essential to achieving national reconciliation and stability in the country.
So, according to what we see in reality, we can say that Sudan is going through a defining moment after twenty months of war. The Sudanese army has made significant progress on the ground, but political stability is still not assured. The challenge now is to find a comprehensive political settlement guaranteeing the reconstruction of a stable civil state, led by the army during the transition period and with a government with national competences, while guaranteeing the sovereignty of the country, the absence of external interference and transitional justice.
May you always be well.
Wednesday December 25, 2024 AD. (email protected)
