El Fasher..an inevitable battle – beyond the news – ✍️ Muhammad Wadaa

*All leaks from militia premises and their allies fear the outcome of the El Fasher attack*

*The army strives to complete tactical control of theaters of operations and force the militia to adjust its options and priorities*

*US-UAE relations face public crisis after UAE demands America withdraw warplanes from its territory*

*US President Biden plans to impose sanctions on the militia and its leader Hemedti under the Magnitsky Act, as requested by Congress*

Despite multiple warnings from the United Nations, international and humanitarian organizations and Western countries, particularly America, France and Britain, all indicators indicate that the battle of El Fasher is inevitable, and the battle is inevitable for the rapid support militia, as shown by their attack in particular on El Fasher. The militia faces enormous military pressure on the outskirts of Madani and in Khartoum on all axes, the most important of which is the Al-Jili-Kadro axis. According to the facts on the ground, the militia. retreats and loses control of his forces, and fails to break the siege of the refinery area. Nor has it succeeded in changing the situation to its advantage south of Khartoum or east of the Nile,

The Rapid Support Militia is pressuring El Fasher to achieve two objectives, the first being an attempt to overthrow the city, with the aim of completing control of Darfur, and the second being to relieve pressure on its forces in Khartoum and Jazira. and of course he is working to obtain a major objective aimed at strengthening his claims to control and his capacity for tactical maneuver, and for this reason he does not forget that he is constantly aiming for the north or the White Nile in addition to the 'East. , targeting El Fasher is the closest thing. The militia knows that the failure of its attack on El Fasher will be disastrous and will cause a major change that will cause it to lose the gains made at Nyala and El Geneina. tries to keep the army and joint forces inside El Fasher, while the army and joint forces' counterplan depends on securing El Fasher and reconquering El Geneina and of Nyala, especially after new fighting forces from the popular resistance joined the army, and multiple daily withdrawals from the ranks of the militia, and it is therefore expected that the militia would prefer to proceed with the siege of the town rather than storming it, especially since it failed to mobilize sufficient forces for the battle. the army and joint forces are strengthening preparations so that the battle becomes a headache for the militia.

All the leaks coming from the premises of the militia and their allies raise fears about the outcome of the attack against El Fasher, due to the difficulty of controlling it and the presence of a hostile incubator for it, and its continued expansion of influence over the city is considered impossible and exhausting in terms of ensuring the sustainability of supplies in an open area that allows aviation to easily destroy and drain supplies of weapons and fuel, as this is currently the case,

For the army, the success of its plan in Al-Jazeera and Khartoum is linked to the battle of Al-Fasher, so that it can take tactical control of the theaters of operations and force the militias to adjust their options and priorities between staying put. Al-Jazeera and Khartoum or put its weight in the battle of Al-Fasher, especially since the time factor does not work in its favor due to political, diplomatic and military considerations, particularly in view of the pressures to which the Emirates United Arabs should face. this month at the Security Council after consideration of Sudan's complaint against it was postponed due to British intervention and a change in the nature of the session, it appears that U.S.- Emirates are facing a crisis that was revealed after the United Arab Emirates. called on America to withdraw its fighter jets from its territory, and the deadline granted by the Congressional Foreign Affairs Committee for President Biden to impose sanctions on the Rapid Support Forces and its commander Hemedti under the law Magnitsky begins to expire. The protégé of a criminal militia will face a difficult situation in a few weeks,

May 4, 2024 AD

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